No End in Sight for UK’s Lockdown

Some media outlets have hinted at possible signs that the UK government’s lockdown goals have changed and PM Boris Johnson is not planning to keep his previous promises. This comes along the news that the government has quietly changed legislation regarding lockdown powers, allowing local councils to keep their own restrictions in place until 17th July. Across statements from many government figures, no clear indications of when UK lockdowns are supposed to end have been made.

The newly-introduced legal change, extending local council powers until mid-July, spans the options to enact capacity restrictions, close shops, restaurants, venues, or public spaces, and cancelling planned events. These rules only extend to England, as in other parts of the UK other local legislation applies. The changes coincide with announcements of harsher enforcement measures and higher fines for those breaking lockdown edicts.

In contrast to their previous press conferences and coronavirus briefings, in their last appearances, Johnson and Home Secretary Priti Patel have not repeated the same phrases regarding the UK lockdown roadmap. As previous statements hinted at an April date for the easing of restrictions, this might mean that such plans are being abandoned behind closed doors.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock has recently told the public that the Johnson government was a “long, long, long way” from easing England’s lockdowns.

Responding to a question about whether the UK public should ‘think twice’ about booking a holiday in the summer, Priti Patel responded on 21st January: “It is simply far too early to even contemplate where we go with restrictions.”

Strong statements also come from influential circles outside politics. Epidemiology professor at the University of Edinburgh Mark Woolhouse has recently addressed the present situation:

“At the moment there is no prospect at all of this virus going away so we’re going to have to learn to live with it.

“If [COVID vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures forever.”

In the latest government coronavirus briefing on 22nd January, to a question regarding the possible longevity of the lockdowns by a Guardian reporter, Boris Johnson responded:

“I think it’s an open question as to when and in what way we can start to relax any of the measures … 

Asked a similar question asking about any possible easing of restrictions, Johnson replied: 

“When you think about unlocking, we really can’t begin to consider unlocking until we’re confident that the vaccination programme is working - until we’re confident that we don’t have new variants or changes in the medical understanding of the virus that might affect our calculations…”

He continued to state that the key measure is the ‘rate of infection’, according to which, while it stays high, the decision is taken for the country to be locked down. The next significant review of the ongoing lockdown and its schedule will come in mid-February, as that is a planned milestone in the vaccination rollout.

On 17th January, UK’s foreign minister Dominic Raab explained on BBC that the government’s roadmap includes ‘99%’ of vulnerable people to be vaccinated by ‘early spring’. He noted that if this goal is reached as planned, ‘we can start to think about the phased transition out of the national lockdown.’

Prime Minister Johnson said in a separate interview that the government’s priority is the February 15th ‘deadline’ for the vaccination of groups most vulnerable to COVID-19. These groups were defined by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation last December and include residents of elderly care homes, people over 69 years old, frontline health and social care workers, and ‘clinically extremely vulnerable individuals’. Johnson went on to specify that by mid-February, the 15 million people in question in the UK will hopefully have been offered a vaccination slot. Over 6.5 million people are reported to have received their first vaccine as of January 25th.

In response to Johnson’s government’s comments over the last week, Matt Harper, the chair of the parliamentary Covid Recovery Group comprised of about 70 MPs ‘concerned about the impact of lockdown’, insisted that if vaccination targets are reached, the government must begin to dismantle the restrictions right away:

“Vaccinations will, of course, bring immunity from COVID, but they must bring immunity from lockdowns and restrictions too … Ministers must come forward now with a plan for lifting restrictions.”

Senior MP and former cabinet minister Esther McVey agreed, insisting that “it is absolutely essential that once the most vulnerable groups have been vaccinated the government start easing lockdowns.” She also called out influences in government and the public sphere “who want lockdowns and restrictions to become a near-permanent feature of our lives.”

Conservative MP Sir Desmond Swayne has expressed his worry “that Boris has been completely taken over,” and has “a complete lack of any sense of urgency on the need to lift restrictions.”

This series of news from the UK comes shortly after an influential piece by Newsweek summarized ‘a study evaluating COVID-19 responses around the world’, which concluded that ‘COVID lockdowns may have no clear benefit [in comparison with] other voluntary measures’.