Myanmar’s Military Overthrows the Government over Allegation of Election Fraud

On Monday morning Myanmar’s military carried out a coup against the sitting government led by Aung San Suu Kyi, a ‘Darling of Democracy’ and a Nobel Peace Prize laureate. Government figures, as well as members of parliament, have been detained since. Replacing ministers and installing army general Min Aung Hlaing as the new ruler, this coup was carried out on the basis of alleged widespread voter fraud in the November 2020 Myanmar general election. Western powers have condemned the move and the UN Security Council is set to meet on Tuesday 2nd. to address the issue.

The coup was staged after the military had not ruled out its possibility in statements from last week. As Yahoo News reported, a spokesman for the Myanmar military stated: “We do not say that the [military] will take power. We do not say it will not as well … What we can say is we will follow current existing laws, including the constitution.” The events of the last days, however, do not seem to be underpinned by Myanmar’s constitution, according to the pre-coup ruling party NLD.

In the military coup, many prominent government figures were detained. Among them was the State Counsellor (Myanmar’s head of government) Aung San Suu Kyi, who is, at the time of writing, being held in an unknown location. Myanmar’s President Win Myint was placed under house arrest, according to AFP. Members of Parliament are reportedly being held inside their government housing. Twenty-four ministers and deputies have been removed by the military. Instead, eleven new functionaries have been appointed by the military in their place to form a new administration.

Allegations of election fraud are at the heart of the recent coup. The military-aligned opposition to the ruling party refused to acknowledge the validity of the results of Myanmar’s November 2020 general election. In it, Suu Kyi’s NLD was reported to have won in a landslide. Specific claims of the opposition included ‘widespread voter irregularities’, in which 8.6 million ‘cases of fraud’ were supposed to have been found. 

In response, the election commission rejected these claims, maintaining that the election had been ‘done fairly and free’. On Tuesday, January 26th, the military issued additional requests that the commission ‘provide final voter lists for cross-checking’. This demand was never met. Under Myanmar’s 2008 constitution, compiling a voter list is a requirement on the electoral commission (art. 399d). These are likely the grounds upon which the military leadership is attempting to build its case of the ‘constitutionality’ of the takeover.

As the coup was being carried out, internet connection in the country was being interrupted in large parts of the country, as well as access to money and banking. Shutdowns were reported across the fintech sector, “even bank ATMs [weren’t] working”.

Although the coup, carried out primarily in the capital Naypyidaw, involved a large military involvement on the streets there, no significant military presence on the ground was reported in Yangon, the country’s largest city and economic hub, which, where, with exceptions, life seems to have continued relatively undisturbed.

Joe Biden’s administration condemned the move, threatening Myanmar with renewed sanctions. After a decade of democratization in the country, during which sanctions previously in place had been gradually lifted, the recent events might mark a U-turn in this progress.

The United Nations Security Council is set to meet on the day of writing (Tuesday, 2nd. February) to address the coup. This meeting will be conducted behind closed doors. The Council is made of 15 members, with only the ‘big five’ of the world’s most prominent powers enjoying a permanent position in this body - US, UK, France, Russia, and China. Per the UN Charter, the Security Council is the UN body with the most power to issue resolutions binding on member states in the face of ‘threats to international peace and security’. Although a decision involving military action is theoretically possible, it has been usually used in the past to respond to states’ previous unilateral military action, such as in the response to Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990. It is more likely that if the Security Council chooses to become involved in Myanmar, it will call for sanctions to be imposed instead, following the lead set by the statements from the Biden administration.

China has responded to the events by not picking sides. It has referred to the military takeover as a “cabinet reshuffle” instead, which it was in only the most formal meaning of the phrase. Chinese media reportedly added that the government is hoping “that all sides in Myanmar can appropriately handle their differences under the constitution”. It is likely that China would be willing to work with either of Myanmar’s now-competing administrations. China has recently developed oil and gas pipelines in Myanmar as a part of its global Belt and Road Initiative, spanning the country from the border with China to the sea coast, which provides an important line of connection in China’s infrastructure. These geo-economic relations are not likely to be put aside to make alliances for ideological reasons, as, unlike Western powers, China does not place a premium on democracy as opposed to military rule.