Are Lockdowns Coming Back to Europe?

With winter around the corner once again, Covid news is already getting more dramatic. Virtually every day now, there are new announcements from countries around Europe of policy escalation in the face of a new wave of Covid infections. Now for the first time, many European countries could end up in lockdown even with most of their adult populations vaccinated. Therefore, it is time to recap what the pandemic situation looks like and how it might evolve over the foreseeable future.

On Friday, November 12th, news broke that the Netherlands would be placed under a partial lockdown, under which curfews for businesses and a ban on audiences at sporting events would be put in place. According to Reuters, such an announcement represents a U-turn in the country’s pandemic-related policies where, until now, the plan was for the Netherlands to keep lifting restrictions even among increases in Covid infections.

The Dutch plans are so far unique in Europe this autumn. A ‘partial lockdown’ like this is treated as a compromise policy by the government, who went as far as to consider closing public spaces to the unvaccinated as the other option. Such a path, even though it was recommended by the Government’s advisory panel, would reportedly be politically untenable at the moment.

Elsewhere, the political climate is heading in this direction fast. The Austrian Government announced on Thursday that when 30% of ICU beds became occupied by Covid patients, a lockdown for the unvaccinated would be introduced. This would mean prohibiting the roughly 35% of Austria’s population who remain fully unvaccinated from leaving their homes for any reason considered non-essential. A day later, Austria’s Chancellor said that such a lockdown of the unvaccinated would indeed be instituted from Monday, November 15th. Even before this news, the conservative government had already banned the unvaccinated from “restaurants, theatres, ski lifts and providers of ‘services close to the body’ like hairdressers.”

While a full lockdown for the unvaccinated is a European first, in other respects Austria is in line with many other European countries. As the EU Digital Covid Certificate was rolled out over the summer, it has become not uncommon to purposefully differentiate between those with the certificate and those without - not only for the purposes of international travel but for domestic uses too. Some form of a vaccine passport is required for indoor hospitality venues in many countries such as Greece, Slovakia, and Belgium, while in others, capacity or opening hours restrictions are placed on businesses that do not require their customers to show Covid passes, such as in the Netherlands. In Italy, all public indoor venues are mandated to require a Covid pass.

Getting a double vaccine is not the only way to be permitted entry to places that must or choose to require a Covid pass to enter. The standard in most countries is to treat full vaccination, a Covid test, or having antibodies from recovery from Covid as equivalent. A test is usually valid for two or three days, depending on the country and the type of test, and recovery ‘counts’ if it is more recent than 180 days.

Germany has had a mix of policies that vary from state to state. In some places and respects, the standard outlined above applies, but as the number of infections has been rising sharply over the last weeks, policy reactions and proclamations have not been far behind. The city of Berlin, for example, has announced that it will be moving from a “3G” system to a “2G” system when it comes to access to indoor hospitality, cultural venues, and a set of other businesses. This change means that, where until now one could either show proof of vaccination, recovery or a test result, from Monday, November 15th, only the first two will be accepted. German Vice-Chancellor Olaf Scholz recently said that the country as a whole needed to become ‘winterproof’ in regards to Covid, encouraging more people to get vaccinated as a first priority. He also said that he would like to see the ‘3G’ standard applied everywhere possible, including across all workplaces, while ‘2G’ should be used in places such as restaurants, theatres, and cinemas. Scholz’s comments were part of a parliamentary debate on amendments to the main German Covid-related law, under which “lockdowns and closures” could be re-implemented once again.

The policies that exclude Covid tests from the list of entry requirement options are counter-intuitive in a very straightforward way. Vaccines and recovery from the virus have indeed been shown to substantially reduce one’s chances of being infected (or re-infected) with Covid, to reduce the average severity of the illness once infected, and to reduce the likelihood of spreading the virus to other people. However, these risk reductions achieved by a vaccine or recovery provide far from any guarantees. In comparison, a recent test is a more reliable indicator of one’s danger to others and to ‘public health’, provided that the tested person has avoided high-risk situations in the meantime.

In light of the above, any attempts to disallow using tests as a ‘Covid pass’ can be better understood as a part of a campaign to incentivise more people to get vaccinated, rather than to ensure the safety of the venue in question. If this is indeed the goal, government officials should be open about it instead of portraying such actions as ‘safety measures’ in the face of high infection rates. Just like with other Covid-related policies and their communication to the public, rules that seem counterproductive or senseless tend to encourage protests, distrust, and lack of compliance - something that ‘public health’ officials presumably want to avoid.

Amending policies to put unvaccinated people under the burden of additional inconveniences has been popular in recent weeks and months. Germany has, in some ways, been at the forefront of rhetoric against the unvaccinated of Europe. German Health Minister Jens Spahn, for instance, told the press earlier this month that at this point and during the most recent wave, “What we are experiencing is above all a pandemic of the unvaccinated.” Apart from additional legal restrictions, the unvaccinated are also facing a public shaming campaign. A good example of this is German Chancellor Angela Merkel repeating the message coming from many government officials that people who have not been vaccinated are failing in their ‘duty’ to society.

In comparison to the situation on the continent, the news in the UK has been more positive. With virtually all Covid restrictions having been rescinded in July, there has been little talk from Westminster of reintroducing lockdown policies. A ‘Plan B’ has been laid out by the government, to be considered if the situation (particularly with healthcare capacity) was to reach a critical point, but unless that happens, ‘Plan A’ will stay in place, which consists almost exclusively of ongoing vaccination and booster jab rollouts. Even under ‘Plan B’, however, the government is not seriously considering bringing in vaccine passports for entry to anywhere other than large-capacity sporting and cultural venues. Here, the biggest change would be the reintroduction of government guidance on working from home wherever possible.

In England, further lockdowns now seem unlikely. While Boris Johnson’s government has been careful not to categorically rule out anything - likely for PR purposes - it is clear that reintroducing most restrictions is now not on the table. Also unlikely is the introduction of broad distinctions between the rights and freedoms of the vaccinated and the unvaccinated. Faced with significant and persistent protests over the spring and summer, most if not all vaccine passport plans have been put on the back-burner. There have been notable exceptions to this, however, such as the introduction of mandatory vaccinations for elderly care home workers, but those have been limited to similar occupational settings rather than applying to the entire public.

For now, England remains an island of relative freedom among most other European countries that are busy reintroducing new sets of pandemic restrictions or inconveniences. On Friday, Denmark, one of the countries that had removed virtually all Covid-related policies several months ago, announced the introduction of a Covid pass for the hospitality industry and nightlife sector similar to the standard across Europe. By contrast, in the UK, news and opinion pieces highlighting the negative aspects of lockdowns and other Covid policies are regularly featured in the public spotlight.

My prediction is that many, if not most, European countries will likely return to lockdowns this winter. These lockdowns will probably not be as severe as last year’s - including stay-at-home orders and local travel bans, for example - but they will still have an enormous impact on those societies affected. An exception to this might be some countries who will decide to make life hell for unvaccinated people while taking a lighter touch to the vaccinated - a policy which is likely to be nominally justified by ‘safety’ when, in fact, it is meant to incentivise the former into accepting vaccines. International travel regimes have already been standardised enough that travel abroad is not likely to get as complicated as it was last year. Finally, fingers crossed, the UK (or at least England) will stay lockdown-free, regardless of vaccination status. Perhaps Brexit-related antagonisms could, at this point, help to push the UK in a different direction on Covid than the path chosen by the governments on the continent.